TEMPO.CO, Jakarta – The Head Economist of PT Bank Permata, Josua Pardede, responded to President Joko “Jokowi” Widodo’s statement on Wednesday, August 16, 2023, estimating a 5.2% economic growth in 2024.
“Generally, the assumption that economic growth in 2024 reached 5.2% is optimistic, yet realistic,” he said when called on Wednesday, August 16, 2023.
However, Josua believed that the government shall maintain consumption growth which has a significant contribution to the economy. The slow global economic growth could also affect the investment rate in 2024. In addition, food inflation potential is a challenge worth noting amid the El Nino phenomenon.
“The government ought to mitigate the food inflation risk to anchor the expected inflation rate,” said Josua.
If the government could mitigate the risk, Josua added, the inflation rate could be maintained at around 3.0% to 3.5%. The assumption of rupiah exchange at Rp15,000 per US$ is also a rational estimation considering the investment climate.
“The external condition of the global central bank could potentially cut down the interest rate [of Bank Indonesia] next year,” he said.
Previously, in addition to the estimation of 5.2% of economic growth, Jokowi also said that the inflation rate will be maintained at around 2.8% with the optimization of the role of the State Budget. He also estimated the exchange rate of rupiah to be at Rp15,000 while the average interest rate of SBN 10 years is predicted at 6.7% level.
MOH. KHORY ALFARIZI
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